HARVEY MANTTAN
Donald Trump has been in office for 40 days; During this short period American foreign policy has been fundamentally transformed by specific and audacious stretches of diplomatic convention. Trump is reshaping the world order profoundly, where ‘might makes right’, alliances are transactional and small nations expendable. This article dissects the pillars of ‘America First’ - nationalist, isolationist and expansionist, and their effects on Europe and the broader world.
Isolationism is nothing new. America First’s heritage traces back to 1918, when Woodrow Wilson coined the phrase. This gave rise to two decades of isolationist policy, characterised by a reluctance to entangle American might in European affairs. Trump similarly sees an urge to cut back on the US’s defence and political obligations worldwide. In Trump's view America is strongest on its own and, unlike smaller powers, does not need to act in a collective. Much of this thinking underpins Trump’s contempt for alliances; Forward-facing alliances such as NATO, allow for America to bear the brunt of the associated risks and costs while achieving little measurable benefit: International alliances and defence treaties aren’t just unnecessary, they’re a liability.
Yet ‘America First’ is fundamentally a nationalist movement - America is ailing and must be ‘great again.’ For Trump this can only come to fruition via a complete redistribution of efforts and resources from the foreign sphere to the domestic. This means Trump is no longer willing to be the principal financier of European deterrence and defence. The significance of this decision cannot be overstated, NATO members grappling with inadequate defence capabilities, face increasing uncertainty- just as Russian tanks push deeper into the Ukraine.
But the doctrine does not stop at nationalism. Trump in his admiration for President Mckinley – the man who annexed Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines- flirts with outright expansionism. Trump is already attempting to follow in Mckinley’s footsteps, with threats regarding the acquisition of the Panama canal, Greenland, and even making Canada the US's 51st state.
Trump’s expansionist sympathies, as mentioned above, align unnervingly with those of Russia and China. A credible fear of collusion between the superpowers is emerging.
Trump and JD Vance’s (possibly deliberate) public humiliation of Zelensky on the 1st Feb - echoing Kremlin talking points and feigning outrage over Zelensky’s desperate attempts to secure peace - suggests that Trump wishes to ignore the sovereignty of smaller nations. The claim that Russia holds “all the cards” has been used to justify a quiet rapprochement with Putin, and a refusal to allow Ukraine a seat at the table. This reductive view of geopolitics as one large card game by Trump – where power supersedes international law, and is a prerequisite for involvement- threatens basic diplomacy and sovereignty.
Trump may be envisioning a world where China, Russia and the US act freely in their own spheres of influence, leaving Ukraine and Taiwan as bargaining chips. To Trump what matters is the pecking order amongst the strong, and in a world where Xi Jinping readies his forces to move on Taiwan by 2028*, the consequences could be catastrophic.
Trump’s actions could have profound consequences for how America – and the broader world- aim to structure their foreign policy in the future. The headwinds of an isolationist, nationalist philosophy are already spreading across Europe, affecting the unlikeliest victims. Britain’s recent decision to drastically cut its international development and aid spending, following on from Trump’s actions with USAID is one powerful example. Trump’s style of economic coercion threatens to dismantle a diplomatic order 500 years in the making, undermining a near century long system of rules and sovereignty; A world where strong-arming and coercion is not only allowed – but encouraged, seems ever closer.
As I write this, European leaders attend a summit in London to discuss Ukraine. At a time where the Russian threat has never been so critical - our leaders must choose to stand boldly against Putin and Trump’s bullying, or watch 30 years of progress and unity crumble.
*Xi Jiping has ordered his generals to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2028*
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